Probabilistic models in epidemiology

The goal of this Research School is to present various probabilistic models for the spread of infectious diseases, which is clearly one of the major problems that Africa has to face in the coming years.

As Sir Ronald Ross wrote in 1911, « epidemiology must be considered mathematically ». Mathematical epidemiology was first based mainly upon deterministic ODE models, corresponding to the study of well established epidemics in large populations.

However, several aspects of epidemic models are inherently random. For example, a probabilistic model is clearly needed to study the probability that a large epidemic occurs after a few infectives have been introduced into a large population. Also models describing the spread of epidemics taking into account the (random) network of social relations have been studied in recent years.

This CIMPA school will review most results (including recent ones) concerning probabilistic models in epidemiology. Also statistical methods for analysis of epidemiological data will be presented.

This school is open to students and researchers having a good understanding of probabilistic modeling. Phd students in fundamental or applied probability are particularly welcome, as well as Post-docs and more advanced mathematicians.